is it warming or cooling Voir la rponse douabdira1 douabdira1 Rponse: yes Ethiopia experiences dynamics in temperature and rainfall patterns.

C. Siderius, K. E. Gannon, M. Ndiyoi et al., Hydrological response and complex impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Nio in Eastern and Southern Africa, Earths Future, vol. 89, no. 0000128300 00000 n 535551, 2012. The temperature extremes of summer days (SU25), daily maximum temperature (TXx), and daily minimum temperature (TNx) indicate an increasing trend, and the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) over Addis Ababa and Combolcha shows a significantly increasing trend (Table 3; Figure 7). 8, pp. The impact of climate change is higher in low income countries, since they have limited capacity to cope with the changes. These zones have traditionally been defined in terms of temperature. 34, no. The causes of climate change are generally categorized as anthropogenic/manmade and natural causes. 121131, 2010. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. High daily and small annual ranges of temperature. Over the last decades, Ethiopia has experienced climatic changes. Mean annual temperature has shown 0.2C to 0.28C rise per decade over the last 40-50 years. L. Argaud, T. Ferry, Q. H. Le et al., Short- and long-term outcomes of heatstroke following the 2003 heat wave in Lyon, France, Archives of Internal Medicine, vol. %%EOF Climate Change poses a huge challenge to Ethiopians as experienced in 1974, 1984, 2002 and 2015/2016 K. A. Hibbard, D. P. van Vurren, and J. Edmonds, A primer on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the coordination between the climate and integrated assessment modeling communities, CLIVAR Exchanges, vol. Additionally, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used in order to understand the projected potential impact of extremes (Table 2) and are discussed in detail in [43, 44]. 5, no. Chance of rain 90%. Webfind figurative language in my text generator. It covers an area of about 1.14 million square kilometers (944,000square miles), and the countrys topography consists of high and rugged plateaus and the peripheral lowlands. 42, no. 0000004710 00000 n The observed precipitation extreme of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), consecutive wet days (CWD), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend, and consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend.

Representative concentration pathways considered in this study. 3, pp. Ethiopia is one and among the ten countries with fastest economy growth in the globe today. [20] who reported continuous variability and reduction of the number of heavy rainy days over the Greater Horn of Africa including Ethiopia. 37, no. The weather and climate of any particular location on earth is determined by a combination of many interacting factors. I. Harris, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Now the question one should inquire here is what determines the variations in weather and climate between places and seasons. Precipitation has remained fairly stable over the last 50 years when averaged over the country. 747756, 2010. Ethiopia is one of the largest humanitarian aid beneficiaries in the world and experiences significant climate-induced drought and water-related stresses on crop and livestock productivity [5]. Data for specific coordinatescan be downloaded for in the Data Download page. Ethiopia as a large country in the Horn of Africa is characterized by a wide variety of altitudinal ranges and diverse climatic conditions. Section B and Section C summarize the software, packages, and calculation of climate extreme indices based on World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations and statistical MK test equation analysis. (TNn) extremes also show an increasing trend over Jimma and a decreasing trend over Combolcha (Table 3). Recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the intensity and frequency of extremes are likely to increase over many areas including East Africa. 0000011918 00000 n %PDF-1.7 % 32, no. GOE, Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners Document, Government of Ethiopia and partners, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2015.

Time-series plot of consecutive wet days (a), consecutive dry days (b), and the number of heavy precipitation days at 10mm (c). 65, no. Mean annual temperature has shown 0.2C to 0.28C rise per decade over the last 40-50 years. [66] also simulated the DTR by using 16 scenarios, and the study noted a reduction in the DTR in all model simulations. 361377, 1996. S2, pp. 0000009018 00000 n So, to minimize the impact of extremes identifying extreme threats, responding to climate extremes through adaptation and mitigation to reduce the likelihood or severity of the extreme threat and recover from the extreme events quickly and efficiently is very important. By contrast, under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, we observed that a significant decreasing trend in PRCPTOT increases the frequency and intensity of drought occurrence over Ethiopia (Figure 10). Meteorological data records of daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data of one hundred stations were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency for the period from 1980 to 2010. Ethiopan malaria scenario may be more influenced by other variables than minimum temperature. R. Tayeb, D. Peyman, and S. Bahram, Annual rainfall trend in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, in Proceedings of the ICID 21st European Regional Conference 2005, Frankfurt, Germany, May 2005. You and C. Ringler, Hydro-Economic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in Ethiopia (No. Moreover, the projected maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) result shows a slight increasing trend over Addis Ababa and Jimma under the RCP4.5 scenario (Table 4). The results of the standardized seasonal rainfall anomaly and EOF analysis trend show a decreasing rainfall in the JJAS season and significant variability in the FMAM season. 99181, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2001. Ogallo [37] performed an EOF analysis to identify homogeneous regions of climate variability for eastern Africa, and the period of analysis was from 1922 to 1990. The projected spatial analysis of percentile-based extremes shows that the frequency of cold nights (TN10) is decreased, while the frequency of warm nights (TN90p) is dominated by a positive trend over Ethiopia for the coming periods (Figure 13). The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons. 12, no. A trend analysis of rainfall and temperature extremes was carried out by using the MannKendall (MK) test. R. I. Maidment, R. P. Allan, and E. Black, Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.

Ethiopia has three rainfall seasons: Bega, Belg, and Kiremt. 2, pp. 88100, United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan, 2001. High 73F. Ensemble interannual variability of the standardized precipitation anomaly (PRCPTOT) extreme over Addis Ababa (a), Jimma (b), and Combolcha (c) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. 112, no. We use cookies to improve your website experience. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< Additionally, temperature extremes like tropical nights (TR20) and daily maximum and minimum temperatures show a significantly increasing trend. 4, pp. 0000188900 00000 n The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. 0000017119 00000 n The monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp. 21, no. K. MG, Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, UK, 4th edition, 1975. For each of the station seasonal mean precipitation, temperature and long-term mean seasonal rainfall and temperature series were analyzed for fluctuation using the standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) which is commonly used for regional climate change studies [38, 39]. [73] who reported that rainfall exhibited high interannual variability (coefficient of variation 1540%) during the period of 1977 to 2007 and projections for future climate suggested that annual rainfall will change by 40 to +10% over Ethiopia. Restore content access for purchases made as guest, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, 48 hours access to article PDF & online version. 105, no. [80] observed a projected temperature increase within the African tropics varying from 3 to 7C for the period 20732098. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms the ITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. 53, pp. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. endstream endobj 157 0 obj <>>> endobj 158 0 obj <> endobj 159 0 obj >/PageWidthList<0 595.276>>>>>>/Resources<>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/Tabs/W/Thumb 146 0 R/TrimBox[0.0 0.0 595.276 841.89]/Type/Page>> endobj 160 0 obj <> endobj 161 0 obj <> endobj 162 0 obj [/ICCBased 180 0 R] endobj 163 0 obj <> endobj 164 0 obj <> endobj 165 0 obj <> endobj 166 0 obj <>stream 11, pp. Standardized rainfall anomaly of (c) FMAM and (d) JJAS seasons. 359-360, 1999. Weather in the Maldives: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in the Bahamas: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Kenya: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Costa Rica: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Egypt: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Tanzania: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Southeast Asia: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in South Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Iceland: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Argentina: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in the Philippines: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Los Angeles: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Africa: Climate, Seasons, and Average Monthly Temperature, Weather in Madagascar: Climate, Seasons and Average Temperatures. Human induced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earths temperatures over the past 50 years. The distribution of weather and climate elements over the surface of the earth is uneven in terms of magnitude and time. Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Nio, M. H. Glantz, Ed., pp. Hence, the zone includes most of the agricultural land. During this period, the length of day and night are equal. 10071023, 1993. Webdynamics, branch of physical science and subdivision of mechanics that is concerned with the motion of material objects in relation to the physical factors that affect them: force, mass, momentum, and energy. Similar studies of Omondi et al. 86308645, 2014. 11-12, pp. Chance of rain 70%.. Tonight. The datasets were analyzed to assess the seasonal rainfall variability and changes of observed and projected climate extremes over Ethiopia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. 0000007328 00000 n

Revolution of the Earth and Inclination of the Earth's Axis, 5.3.1. Windyshowers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy skies with more rain likely overnight. This study found a pronounced warming in most of the temperature extreme indices over Ethiopia which may have potential impacts on local and regional water resources.

Precipitation and temperature are very important climatic parameters as their changes may affect life conditions. This page presents Ethiopia'sclimate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. 623642, 2014. 0000011094 00000 n The wettest months are June and September. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall, 5.5.1. Djibouti, majority of Somalia, and coastal areas of Eritrea are categorized under Kolla and Bereha zones.

2, pp. The highest mountains are concentrated on the northern and southern plateaus of the country [21]. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. D. Korecha and A. G. Barnston, Predictability of june-september rainfall in Ethiopia, Monthly Weather Review, vol. During this passage the length of day and night are equal. Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. However, some parts of the country enjoy a temperate climate. 1, pp. Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. Projected climate extreme trend from CMIP5 ensemble models of temperature and precipitation over Ethiopia. Due to the lack of epidemiologically meaningful effect of temperature variables on the rate of malaria transmission, all emphasis was given to the 02 month lagged rainfalls to describe the transmission dynamics of malaria in the study area. WebIt covers all aspects of the dynamics of global climate systems, including analytical and numerical modeling research on the structure and behavior of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biomass, and land surface as interacting components of the dynamics of global climate. <]/Prev 956938>> The multiple regression model shows that 91.1% of temporal variation in streamflow was accounted for rainfall, whereas, 96.6% and 78.4% of temporal and spatial variation in potential evapotranspiration was accounted for in maximum temperature and NDVI, respectively. The daily rainfall and temperature data were collected from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. It lies between 1500-2,300 meters above sea level. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is For this study, we used twenty one extremes of temperature and precipitation (Table 1). The annual rainfall ranges from 1138 mm to 1690 mm. During kiremt (long rainy) season, maximum seasonal rainfall of453.2mm were recorded while, its minimum value(39.6mm) were received in bega (dry) season, respectively. Other historical climatologies can be selected from the Time Period dropdown list. Mean annual rainfall distribution is approximately 2,000 mm over the south-western highlands and less than 300 mm over the south-eastern and north-eastern lowlands.

10, no. So, projecting the future precipitation and temperature extremes is important for providing the general information on the trend, intensity, frequency, and changes of climate extremes and their potential impact over different socioeconomic activities [2]. The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. However, there is greater concern regarding the extent and especially quality of the The EOF analysis allows us to explain the variance-covariance of the data through the modes of variability. Comparison plot of R10 between observed and projected precipitation extremes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. R. H. Moss, J. 0000006444 00000 n J. Sillmann, V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh, Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. So even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases today, global warming and climate change will continue as it has natural source of emission. 0000152505 00000 n

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West Africas climate is controlled by the interaction of two air masses, the influence of which varies throughout the year with the north-south movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. M. New, M. Todd, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century, International Journal of Climatology, vol.

364367, 1997. 0000125978 00000 n Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. The contour-based seasonal rainfall analysis of FMAM and JJAS shows that, over northeastern, central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country, the seasonal rainfall is variable (Figures 2(a) and 2(b)). We understand your requirement and provide quality works. It is increasingly clear that many African countries are already experiencing erratic impacts of climate change [60]. 0000151832 00000 n The results of temperature extremes like tropical nights (TR20), monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature (TNx), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) show a significant increasing trend.

The driest season is Bega, whereas the main rainy season is Kiremt in which 85% to 95% food crops are produced. Higher rise in temperature was noted in drier areas in northeast and southeast part of the country. 3, pp. The projected diurnal temperature range (DTR) shows a decreasing trend over Addis Ababa, Jimma, and Combolcha under RCP4.5 and an increasing trend under RCP8.5 (Table 5; Figures 11 and 12). (c) Mean annual rainfall climatology (mm). Probability density function (PDF) plot of the FMAM and JJAS standardized rainfall anomaly.

Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. The result identify potential synergies and tensions between the goals of resilience and climate smart agriculture, and raises the question of whether fully climate-smart goals are viable in these systems.